There’s a scene in The West Wing (I know, I can’t help it) where pollster Joey Lucas is debating WH Deputy Chief of Staff Josh Lyman on the meaning of some polling numbers. Lyman cautions that continued negatives on gun control means they have to “dial down the gun rhetoric.” Lucas, the woman with the numbers, goes a different interpretive route:
You say that these numbers mean dial it down. I say they mean dial it up. You
haven’t gotten through. There are people you haven’t persuaded yet. These numbers mean dial it up. Otherwise you’re like the French radical watching the crowd run by and saying “There go my people, I must find out where they are going so I can lead them.”
It feels corny to quote The West Wing, but I can’t find the original story after a hard thirty seconds of searching, so I’ll go with a fantasy text as my source.(*)
We are now watching the Old Guard of the Democratic party play the part of the French radical. They are going to have to run to find the front of the march so they can lead on progressive issues. In fact, they’re going to have to run hard, because they’re racing conservative evangelicals to lead in that space.
Two remarkable things about the election earlier this month and relevant here are: 1) the passage of minimum wage bills in Arkansas and Missouri; and 2) the restoration of voting rights to convicted felons in Florida. There were, of course, also good outcomes on Medicare, but they were less surprising. Minimum wage raises in two red states, one of which is “right to work” (AR) and one where “right to work” was defeated after a heavily fought battle (MO), is a pretty significant outcome. Unions are weak in both states, Democrats can’t be bothered to fight in most of their voting districts – and yet, people are taking actions that look like distinctly blue states and cities.
More interesting, though, is the restoration of voting rights to convicted felons in Florida. The state constitutional amendment was passed by 65% of Florida voters. Sixty-five percent. Think of that. A state that seems likely to vote 50.1% to 49.9% on drowning puppies, voted overwhelmingly to restore voting rights – to convicted felons!
On neither of these issues did Hillary Clinton take stands that could be called leadership. Her strongest statement on the Fight for $15 was that she wouldn’t veto a bill for a $15 minimum wage if Congress passed one. And I’ll spare you guys listening to me talk about the hypocrisy of Clintonists on racial justice and the New Jim Crow.
What we’re continuing to see – through various flip districts, campaigns that ran outside of direct DNC management, or grassroots action is an emerging consensus in support of issues Democrats typically feel a need to dial down. People are marching ahead on issues that the Democratic consulting and political operative class consider to be losers.
And today we find out that evangelical leaders are planning to show their softer side and take up several classically Democratic issues. Ralph Reed, of the Freedom and Faith Coalition, responding to the harsh turn of public opinion against what is now seen as the evangelical agenda, says [emphasis mine]:
“Social conservatives need to maximize turnout from the base and expand the map by stressing the softer side of the faith agenda: education reform, immigration and criminal justice reform, and anti-poverty measures.”
Of course, not all evangelicals are moving in that direction. In fact, some are doubling down on the punitive fundamentals. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, has an interesting Aristotle meets Goldwater phrasing for his moral strategy moving forward:
Very few people anymore are in the middle. Barack Obama brought us to this point more quickly because of the extreme policies that he pushed. Trump, with the support of evangelicals, has worked to move the pendulum back.
In other words, extremism in the face of extremism isn’t extremism, it’s a way back to a balanced center.
Despite the internal disagreement, it’s clear that very serious players in the most hardened corners of the right are moving into classic, DFL-style Democratic territory. Education, criminal justice reform (which in the age of the New Jim Crow largely means racial justice), and anti-poverty work are supposed to be Dem issues. But evangelicals see that as winnable territory.
Within the Democratic party, there’s a strange fight happening around the Green New Deal. The Green New Deal is a combination program of infrastructure, public spending, jobs, and climate change fix – something we might have considered Democratic Party 101 in the not so distant past. And yet, the Congressional Progressive Caucus is rallying troops in a fight to get these issues onto Nancy Pelosi’s to-do list. (I realize some of this is theater. And it’s definitely smart politics to pressure Pelosi. That’ll make it easier for Pelosi to deal with other wings of the party and the broader donor base. Still, it’s weird to watch, especially as 45* continues to woo working folks and unions with hopes of an infrastructure bill.)
45* is already getting out in front of the Republican black and latinx voter problem with announcement of prison sentencing reform, taking a big swing at the Democrats’ already fairly weak claim on being the party of racial justice. Evangelicals are getting ready to take on the mantle of fixing our schools, fighting poverty, and economic justice.
And now we get to watch Pelosi, Schumer, and the DNC in a foot race against Ralph Reed to the front of the crowd – to try and lead the people who have been headed in the direction Democrats should have been marching all along.
(*) An extra thirty seconds indicates that this is one of those quotes will wind up attributing to all sorts of people, including Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin, a forgotten French radical of the 1848 era. The line attributed to him, by some, is “There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”
In at The End of The World 
First off, Laska, the mid-terms certainly validated your oft-expressed belief that the Democrats need to organize and compete everywhere and run on core Democratic principles like expanding health care, labor, and civil rights. You were tenacious in that belief and it was spot on.
A few observations about or suggested by your post.
1) I’m not too worried about Trump flanking the Democrats with black or Latinx voters. Not when core elements of his base are so xenophobic and racist. The sentencing reform bill has been in congress since the Obama Administration. I’m not sure why it wasn’t passed then as there is broad bi-partisan support for it. The bi-partisan support stems from the fact that, conservative or liberal, members of congress are hearing from the governors and county officials in their states that they can’t afford to keep incarcerating so many people. Trump will get to sign it, but he doesn’t have the focus or care to flank anybody. Pelosi has said that the first bill they will bring to the floor is a restoration of the Voting Rights Act.
2) A moment of glee. Seeing all those photos of the incoming Democratic freshman class is inspiring. I think the party and some of its supporters need to recognize that these people won because they reflected the concerns and aspirations of their communities, were strong candidates, and stood for issues like health care and incoming inequality. Not just, vote for me because of my gender or sexuality. I mean, I didn’t know that Kyrsten Sinema was bi-sexual. And I can’t imagine the voters in Arizona cared that much.
3) Excited about Ihan Omar in particular. As a grandson of Italian immigrants, it’s fun and inspiring to see an immigrant community—in this case the Somalis in Minnesota—organize and express their voice. One of their own as a member of the United States Congress.
4) A Green New Deal. First time I’ve heard that phrase, but I hope not the last. Sasha Issenberg has a very long (I didn’t finish it) article in New York that ends up devolving into fan fiction type future scenarios. But one idea he floated was an environmental compact between California, New York, Washington, and a few other large, like-minded states to enforce at the state level more effective Green policies. They could set de facto national standards.
5) To add to your list of ballot imitative victories, voters in Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska approved Medicaid expansion.
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Also, I can’t help but think it good if people like Ralph Reed feel the imperative to at least express support for the issues you mention above. As you noted off line, he may be feeling the heat from younger evangelicals. But, I can’t imagine them going all Williams Jennings Bryan on us. But, would it be bad if he did? I realize you were making the comment to illustrate the point that the septuagenarian and near-octogenarian House leadership had better move fast to keep up. Will be fascinating to see who Pelosi chooses to position as her successor. It had better not be Steny Hoyer.
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Anyone coming around on some of these issues is all to the good. Any time politicians feel the need to catch up to folks who are moving on their steam is good as well. 100%. My main point, here, is that Democrats should be leading in this space. It’s infuriating that they’ve been so cautious on supporting these issues much less leading on them. From a political perspective, it’s important because Black, Latinx, and working poor voters didn’t show up for HRC the way they did for BHO. On the Republican side, there was a lot of worry about the growing people of color vote (I swear they were calling it the “brown vote” problem, but I can’t find that phrase. But for sure Rove and others were terrified of shifting demographics. While uncertain of the timing, it seems to be happening already at the local level.) Trump would never be able to build credibility on these issues by signing a bill, but lower-level Republicans suddenly have better talking points in states where they need to compete for those votes.
On the issue side of things, it actually is bad for the Reeds of the world to find a way to lead. If they get out in front of this, they will have the room to frame the issues, water them down, and start defining the solution space. It’s great if they’re playing catch-up, because policy debates will start *from a progressive* point that others have to encroach.
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Once more thing. Which you probably noticed. For those of us who grew up during the Reagan Administration, it’s nothing short of astounding to see the GOP lose every congressional seat in Orange County, CA. Doesn’t remove the personal pain of seeing Westmoreland County in SWPA go Republican, but it’s remarkable.
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