Republicans’ Ryan Hope

Trump Scared Ryan EconomistBet nobody’s done that one before, huh?

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan meets Trump today after more than a week refusing to endorse the inevitable nominee, offering to step out of his convention role (scaring the bejesus out of Trump, I’d wager), and playing a wait and see game.

In an earlier question from Mr Jones about whether Ryan was looking weak, muddle-headed, etc.  I hastily said no way it’s smart and was almost admiring of Ryan.  But then the NY Times runs a piece featuring Republicans who want Ryan to just endorse him already and say he’s walking a tightrope between party unity and his personal choices, and The Economist runs the cartoon above. Suddenly I’m jittery and my mind is wobbling between poles.

This is a symptom of the ‘balanced’ coverage of the press in which every article of every publication feels compelled to put in a counter-quote, or run a story that runs counter or shows a dissenting viewpoint.  (The NY Times piece quotes only one Senator as being critical of Ryan’s wait and see stance.)

So, I think Ryan is being remarkably smart on behalf of the party and himself.

  • He’s reading Trump not as a the future of the party, but as the winner against a crowded, muddled, weak field of candidates in a transitional phase of the party.
  • He is the only real leader in the party with any kind of clout
  • If he believes, as do most others, that the White House is going to HRC, then he needs to protect the only remaining assets the Party has:  Congressional majorities.
  • Trump actually needs Republican help, and Ryan is the only player who hasn’t walked away from him, so Ryan might be able to negotiate something.
  • Ryan may be the only Republican who Trump can’t bully or mock as a loser.  Ryan’s got none of the weaknesses of Cruz or Rubio, he been enlisted to help the party (Romney ticket, House, almost candidate) and while he may not have the entertainment power of Trump Ryan is plenty savvy.

Ryan loses very little by not endorsing Trump and focusing his energy on the House majority.  There are too many Republicans withholding support for Ryan to be blamed for a loss in November.  It’s a principled stand to say Trump was sinking the party and Ryan chose to keep the ship afloat while Trump went down.  And Ryan gets loads of time in the national press talking about his brand of conservatism and being the guy everyone wishes was running instead – setting up for 2020.

 

4 thoughts on “Republicans’ Ryan Hope

  1. This makes a lot of sense to me: “If he believes, as do most others, that the White House is going to HRC, then he needs to protect the only remaining assets the Party has: Congressional majorities.” Also he’s got his own shot against her in four years. What I can’t see is how Trump can have the bejeezus scared out of him (and I thank you for resurrecting that excellent term) by anything, really. But I also know I can’t read Trump at all.

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      1. Wasn’t a subtweet, didn’t have your model in view when I replied. So I’d like to say that’s how I always spell it–but I don’t think I’ve ever spelled it before!

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  2. I think Ryan will stay coy about his support for Trump right up to the convention. Likely hoping that Trump eventually loses patience and starts calling him Lyin’ Ryan. Which then gives Ryan the pretext of stepping out of the convention. Taking the family to the Jersey Shore for a nice vacation that week.

    Two other notes: Ryan actually cares about policy in a deep way. I can’t imagine those discussions with Trump who has already revealed this week that he doesn’t know how Treasury Bonds work.

    Ryan is from Wisconsin, the state that almost sunk Trump’s campaign. Local right wing radio hosts in Wisconsin have been blistering in denouncing Trump for months. They’ll start lacing into Ryan as well if he gives Trump an unequivocal endorsement.

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