“It’s the economy, Clinton”

My head is spinning with this election.  So much acrimony, worry, infighting, delegate counting, rule tracking, score keeping of endorsements already hurt my brain.  And now we’re watching the Clintons re-stage the 1990s battle to win the angry white man … or … what?

Over the last couple days, HRC has been taken to task for her comments about putting coal miners out of business, apologized to a coal miner, started pursuing Republican donors, started pursuing alienated Republican voters, and asked her husband to ““come out of retirement and be in charge” of creating jobs in places that have been particularly hard hit.”

Despite Rob Reiner’s keen insight into the American electorate, pundits are finally acknowledging that Trump’s economic message is the more durable and, to HRC,  dangerously effective part of his candidacy.  (CVFD, would love to be pointed to Fallows intense and personal looks at Trump supporters.)  He can pull back on the anti-Hispanic stuff, spend less time on beheadings, and focus more on trade agreements, the decimation of the manufacturing sector, and both parties’ neglect of these parts of the economy.

As a result, we’re watching the weird theater of Trump telling the elite, technocratic Clinton of the day:  “it’s the economy, stupid.”  Oh, the irony.

So how is this all going to come together?  I think the Clintons (and now that Bill is out of retirement, I think I may just start saying that more regularly) are seeing a chance to build the biggest, broadest coalition the Democrats have ever had.  The long-awaited, oft-predicted collapse of the Republican party is finally upon us and everything but evangelical voters seem to be up for grabs.  HRC, running on fear of Trump, is looking at a virtual buffet of voting blocs:

Women + New Democrats + Sanders Supporters + Moderate Republicans + Economically anxious Republicans Voting for Trump + People of Color + Businesses of all sorts of sizes + the angry working man

It’s a dizzying possibility.  Racking up the biggest electoral map victory in recent years, quite possibly destroying the Republican’s legislative majority (numerically, or simply by dividing them), an almost impossibly disorganized opposition party, and an optimistic outlook for the 2018 elections.

Can Clinton make this coalition work?  Can Trump moderate himself with credibility or without losing his base?  Those are the bigger questions, but I want to focus on the economic outrage to which Trump and Sanders have given voice.

For Clinton, this picture in The Guardian today highlights the biggest threat:

Miners for Trump

I have my doubts that WJC can handle this.  For all his personal charm and his legendary ability to explain policy, he doesn’t seem to handle outrage well and he’s been pretty proud of his record on trade.   It’s one thing to explain how a policy will be good for you and gain trust.  WJC feels your pain, explains a complicated policy, promises it will be OK and we wipe tears from our eyes.  It’s an entirely different matter to convince people that their pain is completely unconnected to your policies, or that your really did help them while you were in office, and that your wife didn’t mean anything when she was so glib about miner’s jobs.

(And the subtext of the picture is that HRC’s coalition is decidedly not Bubba.  While HRC has smartly avoided the characterizations of the dumb, uneducated, overweight, incompletely toothed, unwashed, her supporters, in my experience have a hard time hiding their distaste and many just love crowing about their idiocy.)

It gets even trickier for the Clintons as they wade into this territory, because they could very well find themselves in the odd position of really needing active union support, rather than mere non-opposition.  Sanders has already proven that the rank-and-file membership are suspicious of New Democrat policies and are happy to ignore the endorsements of their national leadership (of whom they are also dubious). While I can’t imagine Trump ever earning the endorsement of the UMWA, I doubt we’re gonna see the legendary miners in camos at HRC rallies.

Which, to many Dems is the point:  “we were never going to win them anyway” but what about striking Verizon workers who saw Sanders walking picket?  What about the Teamsters who saw Elizabeth Warren go to bat for their pensions?  What happens when Trump starts beating the drum about HRC saying there was plenty of blame to go around for the recession including the irresponsible homeowners who took those mortgages?  Watching Trump versus WJC battle to be champions of the working man, the working poor, and the struggling middle class will be a great cosmic joke.  But it will also be terrifying, because Trump has a narrative and no record.  And the Clintons have a worn-out narrative and a highly questionable record.

Oi. Oi. Oi.

11 thoughts on ““It’s the economy, Clinton”

  1. Lots of good stuff here, Laska. Among the many questions raised: “what will HRC run on?” She has the chance to benefit from a historic landslide victory. After the California primary, she’ll need to start articulating what she’s actually running on. She has a unique chance to break with the ’90s. In fact, a speech where she says, my husband was a great president. We had peace and prosperity during his administration. But, that was twenty years ago and here’s my vision for the future.

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    1. It could be amazingly liberating. Cut deals with everyone to save the Republic from Trump, give the Rs some room to recover, but still have 4 good years of getting a lot of stuff done.

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  2. Yes, much to think about here. I started with my head spinning, kind of felt like I got a few weird bearings, now spinning again. The thought that HRC has the potential to build a huge coalition across common boundaries is mindblowing in itself. It has to be true that she’ll now pull both some GOP stalwarts and some Sanders supporters. That might represent some kind of actual realignment. But if a big coalition emerges, what’s it a coalition *about*? And bringing Bill “out of retirement” doesn’t reassure me — just as an electoral strategy — the way it might have some years ago. He seems elderly and a bit spasmodic, crankily concerned to protect his legacy.

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  3. Furthermore, on Trump moderating: sometimes that’s hard to see. In the past two or three days his tweets have goofed on Native Americans and Hispanics and [NO, THIS WAS A PARODY TWEET THAT I ACTUALLY THOUGHT WAS REAL:] wished happy mothers day “even to moms who let themselves go, unlike my daughter Ivanka.” AND YET I THINK THE POINT ABOUT THE TACO BOWL AND ELIZABETH WARREN’S “NATIVE AMERICAN NAME” IS SITLL GOOD.] I guess the Twitter account is mainly dedicated to the base, so he can run a “Meet the Press” game as presidential even while throwing the fanboys red meat on social media — but don’t those streams have to cross sometime?

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    1. Trying to make a Ghostbusters joke, but the crossing streams lines aren’t as tight as I remember them. I feel like he’s going to have trouble keeping his original support base whipped up while he’s out there muddling through Presidential appearances.

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    1. “If she were my daughter, I’d date her.” — Trump parody account credible to Mister Jones

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  4. So, re-reading all the comments and this post, my conclusion is now that HRC says: Screw ’em. I don’t need ’em to win – at all, and those who are thinking about politics will be afraid of being on the wrong side of me and guess what? Once I’m elected, I still won’t need ’em.

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