Having grown up in Pennsylvania, I always pay special attention to that state’s politics.  Until recently, the PA primary was held in June and so usually the races were just about decided by the time the campaign focused on PA.

Obviously not so this year.  A few posts ago, I wrote about how I remembered PA’s arcane primary rules working in 1984.  With the PA primary tomorrow, I thought I’d explain how the GOP primary in PA will assign delegates.  But, it’s even more obscure than I thought.  And never mattered in an era when the national conventions were just big t.v. shows.  But, this year, Pennsylvania could be pivotal to deciding if Trump can win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania has 54 Republican delegates.  Voters cast ballots for candidates whose names appear on the ballot.  The winner of this contest receives 17  state-wide delegates who are bound on the first convention ballot to vote for the winning candidate.  The remaining delegates are apportioned by congressional district.  With each district getting three delegates.  And here’s the kicker, these congressional delegates are not bound to any candidate on the first convention ballot.   They are free agents from the start.  So, while Trump is heavily favored to win tomorrow, he could still come out a loser in the delegate race when the dust settles and the horse-trading is done. A pretty great time to be, say, a county commissioner in Pennsylvania looking for a job in Harrisburg or D.C.