If Trump was my father, I’d hug him and tell him I love him and explain to him why the lawyers in the room were just there to help him.

I returned from the gym last night, unmuted the television on MSNBC and got 30 minutes of live Trump in Cincinnati.  I hadn’t watched that much unfiltered Trump in months, and it was deeply alarming. So much so that I spent this morning talking to my priest. And then stopped by the mosque across the street from my apartment because I was still unsettled.  I’m pretty sure they thought I was a cop, but were very nice. They had left-over, but still delicious food from their last day of Ramadan buffet.  They let me take some of it home with me.

Here’s a link to the entire Trump event in Cincinnati.  Just skip around and watch parts of it. It goes on for over an hour. Warning:  This video contains fairly graphic footage of someone who is mentally disturbed. I wish I was kidding about that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_ow1UJZJs

 

Remember, this is the same day that the director of the FBI said all kinds of damning things about Hillary and her email. But, Trump spent as much time talking about Don King as he did Hillary. “Big” Don King. Who is going to speak at the Republican convention.  Apparently, Newt Gingrich was in attendance. Supposedly there to share the stage with . . .

. . . ah, why even bother try to finish the sentence?

The reporters on cable news didn’t know how to respond. They have mortgages, kids in school, career aspirations. But, how much longer can they ignore what’s in front of them?

We started this blog because we love talking about politics and policy, but I’m not sure what to say.  Hillary was called out yesterday by the FBI director for, among other things, telling lies. He’s testifying before a House committee as I write this. Hillary also proposed free in-state college tuition for any family making under $110k a year. But . . .

. . . Laska and Mr. Jones have been bemused by my predictions of a military coup that deposes President {aw c’mon!) Trump. But, watch parts of the video from Cincinnati and then stash four days of cash, canned food, and bottled water in your basement. I mean, why can’t, at least, the Coast Guard step in the next time he’s at the Jersey Shore?

And now, today, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Corker suggested that Ivanka should be Trump’s running mate.  “She’s beautiful in every way,” gushed the senator. “She’s very tall,” he continued, “and was wearing heels. I’ll spend whatever time necessary to advise her on foreign affairs. I’m about 5’8” and half. We should declare a no-fly zone in Syria. . . “

Trump is likely to announce his choice for vice president this week or early next.  And, many, many people are asking me who he might select. To cut to the chase, I think he selects Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania. I’ll get to my reasoning in a moment.  It involves the inevitable and frequent impeachment hearings that would be the signature event of a Trump “presidency”.

Before I get into my reasoning, it’s worth noting that . . . .

He’s Still All Alone

Hillary’s potential VP picks are all over the talk shows, doing local interviews, and showing up at rallies. Just take a look at the lineup for the Sunday shows from this holiday weekend.  Sherrod Brown on ABC, Tom Perez (really?) on NBC, Xavier Becerra (still my pick) on Fox, Cory Booker on CNN. Elizabeth Warren, of course, did a big rally with Hillary this week. Everyone’s auditioning for the part.

By contrast, none of the mentioned Trump candidates were out there working for the soon-to-be nominee. No sightings of Christie or Pence or anyone else other than the most obscure Representatives willing to speak for Trump. Watch Tom Cotton on Meet the Press yesterday pull both of his hamstrings trying to avoid saying something nice about Trump.

So, Trump can go one of two ways with his VP pick.

Proven leader

This would be the obvious way to go for any newcomer in politics. Bob Corker would have been perfect. Mike Pence would do. And, he’d help with Evangelicals and the far right. Newt? Gingrich? It’s easy to say that no serious politician with any future aspirations would ever agree to be Trump’s running mate. But, it’s the vice presidency. One heartbeat from history.  So, I won’t be surprised if a well-respected Republican agrees to be on the ticket.

But, it’s still hard to imagine. Pence is up for re-election as governor in Indiana.  Indiana law won’t allow him to run for governor and VP at the same time.  He’s likely to run for president in four years. Or, he could run for the senate in two years against Democrat Joe Donnelly.  He has a future. Why jeopardize it by having to explain the Trump campaign’s repurposing of anti-Semitic graphics from a racist web site?

The Impeachment Factor

The wildcard here that no one’s talking about is the likelihood that Trump will be impeached. It’s easy to imagine that President (cough, choke) Trump, in his first 100 days provides ample grounds for bi-partisan articles of impeachment. For example,

• President Trump doesn’t show up for work and delegates unprecedented duties to the vice president. No one in congress knows who speaks for the White House. Vice President Corker finds himself in the situation room, with Trump phone calling in from Mara Largo, where he’s playing Scrabble with Ivanka. And no one’s sure who is running the show.
• President (Gack!) Trump fires the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after the military refuses to implement torture policies. Or, after Trump just makes an ass of himself in the situation room. Easy to see the Joint Chiefs popping by McConnell and Ryan’s offices and saying, either you do something about this or we’re parking the tanks on the White House lawn.
• President (Gasp!) Trump insults an ethnic group, a country, and women all at the same time. It was all fun and games when he was a candidate, but another thing when he does it from the cabinet room. Or tweeting from the Lincoln bedroom. Mexico closes its embassy in Washington in protest.
• President (!!!) Trump walks away from all his outstanding personal and corporate debts and continues to run his stupid businesses as his first priority while president. Freshman pre-law students are all that’s required to do the legal analysis.

The Impeachment Scenario is the reason why someone like Bob Corker might take the job.  I’m sure that McConnell is whispering in his ear. “We’ll have him out of there by September.”

It’s also the reason that Trump will never pick someone who is overwhelmingly qualified to be president. Plus, his narcissism won’t allow him to pick someone more qualified.  So, we are left with the next category

People with Nothing Left to Lose

In this category, are people who either have no remaining political future or for whom being the VP selection would catapult them into national politics.  These candidates are also people who pose no threat to Donald Trump. Don’t underestimate this criteria. He has no record of hiring strong people who will stand up to him.

So, Ben Carson would certainly take it, and I wouldn’t rule out Trump picking him, if Trump’s endgame is to make as big a farce of the election as possible.  And Carson would be the best impeachment insurance. Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma. Diversity to the ticket. It gets her out of Oklahoma. Everyone would forget who she is three weeks after the convention.  Which, arguably is the main role of a Trump VP, to just fade into the background.  Someone has to campaign in Mississippi and Wyoming.

Scott Brown, former Massachusetts senator, is perfect. However, he’s quite a handsome guy, and I don’t see Trump putting a good looking man in the spotlight.

This leaves Santorum. He’s a former three-term senator so he can claim to be someone who can help navigate Capitol Hill. He shores up the religious right.  He’s from must-win PA, though he decisively lost the last time he ran for election there ten years ago.  He has nothing to lose in taking the job.  Unless he wants to become the Twenty-First Century version of Harrold Stassen.  Which isn’t the worst thing in the world. And which he can still do after pulling himself from the Trump wreckage and having his burns treated at the Mayo Clinic.

 

What better way to start observing the 4th of July holiday, than to watch the soon-to-be Republican nominee ridicule and attempt to intimidate a Turkish reporter at a press conference yesterday.  Boy, there just isn’t a magnanimous impulse in the guy. But, notice that when Turkey is mentioned, his instinct, right after making fun of the Turk in the room, is to talk about his business ventures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFwYdkbwoTs

 

I’m reminded of that time JFK poked fun at a Japanese reporter. “When I was,ah, a young man, we called your people ‘Japs’.  Am I allowed to, ah, call you a “Jap?” Where’s McNamara? Someone ask Mac about this Jap thing. My father used to run Saki from Canada. He and, ah, Meyer Lansky brought it to the U.S. in 1927. I love the Japanese people.”

Or the time Reagan spoke pidgin Spanish to a reporter from El Salvador. “As, my Undersecretary for Latin American affairs, Senor Wences, once said . . .”

Or that week during the congressional debate on the Americans with Disabilities act, when Bill Clinton affected a funny limp in his left leg, breaking up the press corp with physical comedy every time he pretended to struggle up a flight of stairs.  Good stuff.

And smart campaigning by Trump to step so adeptly into the presidential tradition of making fun of people weaker than him.  What else is a Bully Pulpit there for?

 

May and June have been fun times for devotees of Trump Studies. He made a fool of himself almost every day. He has no campaign staff.  No money. Every day former Republican office holders endorse Hillary Clinton, Republican senators and governors refuse to discuss him with the press.  He’s underwater in the polls.  He’s losing in places like Utah and Kansas.

It’s been fun to think about a Hilary landslide, a democratic senate, a 7-2 liberal majority on the Supreme Court for the next twenty years. And, I think all of that is going to happen.

But, Trump’s performances the last two days are a portent for what’s coming the rest of this election. He gave two speeches, one on Monday in Southwestern Pennsylvania about trade and the economy and one in Maine where he talked about Isis.

Both speeches were at indoor venues. He spoke, mostly, from a teleprompter.  No outdoor rallies and stupid baseball caps with Trump free associating about his polls and his amazing company and hurling school-yard insults at his rivals.

His message was clear.  The country is dying. We are weak and stupid. I’m strong. Hillary is weak. Vote for me. Democrats and Hillary had better not underestimate how effective this can be.  It won’t be enough for her to just make fun of him. It sure won’t be enough for her to just look reasoned and safe and defending the status quo. He’s a buffoon and a jagoff, but still the single greatest threat to the Republic.

Isis and National Defense

During his speech in Maine and an appearance yesterday on Bill O’Reilly’s show he told so many lies that it’s impossible to keep up with them.

• He said over and over that Isis is strong , and we are weak (we aren’t). That they are winning (no) and we are losing (no). Just this week, Iraqi forces completed their retaking of Fallujah. Yesterday, U.S. and allied air forces caught an Isis column out in the open on the retreat from Fallujah.  To use Trump’s language, the allied air forces “bombed the shit out of them” resulting in an estimated 250 dead and 40 vehicles destroyed.
• He talked about how we are letting in tens of thousands of Syrian refugees and many of those are Isis. Republican Peter King, Chair of the House Homeland Security committee observed this morning that the total number of Syrian refugees admitted to the country is 4,800 and that they are heavily vetted.
• He gave a full-throated endorsement of torture. Water boarding, yes, but that’s not strong enough. He imagined Isis leaders having dinner and laughing at the U.S. for running a “politically correct” war while they are chopping people’s heads off.
• They are recruiting our young people
• They use the internet better than we do.

 

Fear resonates with Trump’s base and certainly with what we used to call blue collar voters. I remember during the 1980s, a lot of conversations around dinner tables and in bars.  Voters who were sure that the Soviets were strong and smart, and we were weak and stupid. That they were winning, right up to the moment the Soviet economy and political system collapsed.

Kennedy in 1960 made up a missile gap with the Soviets and used that fear to help defeat Nixon.  Twenty years later, Reagan resurrected the pretend missile gap. I still remember Reagan, his voice somewhat choked with emotion, saying of the Soviet’s pretend first-strike capability, “They could take us without firing a shot.”  It was all bullshit, but it was worked. Reagan Strong. Carter Weak.

Fear works on national security issues with a certain segment of voters. The question is, how big that constituency is. Hillary can beat him. But, not by saying things like, “we’ll continue to work with our European and Muslim allies”.

Trade

On Monday, he promised to scrap the Trans Pacific trade deal and to renegotiate NAFTA.  Punish China for trade violations, like dumping steel on the U.S. market. Restrict trade in certain industries to protect American workers.

The message is clear. I’m strong. Everyone else is weak and dumb.  It won’t be enough for Hillary to repeat the usual boilerplate about free trade. Bernie, and Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown will help a lot here, but the candidate herself is not a credible voice on issues of trade and blue collar jobs.

I don’t believe that there are enough voters who buy into Trump’s message of Fear and Strength. Fear through Strength. Strength is Fear. But, this stuff works. And Trump reading from a teleprompter. A Trump with two dozen memorized lines for a debate with Hillary. A Trump whose only message is “I’m Strong and you are Weak” is a viable and dangerous candidate.

I still think he’s going to get his ass kicked in November because everyone (except for many of the people I grew up with in Southwestern Pennsylvania) knows he’s not qualified for the job.  But, Democrats can’t just run out the clock or assume that this is going to be easy.

I was on vacation with my family this past week and so didn’t blog much, but it was a dizzying week in Trump Studies that had the whole family watching Morning Joe before heading to the beach. I feel like we dodged a bullet. Or at least two bullets. “We” being the Democratic Party and the country.  The GOP took both bullets square in the chest and jerked around like Sonny Corleone on the New York Causeway.

For a moment there, it looked like the effort to deny Trump the nomination in Cleveland was gaining some momentum. This was the first bullet.  That Republicans at the last minute might finally dump this creep and replace him with a candidate who could beat Hillary and help them retain the senate. It clearly had the Trump team rattled, and they responded like graduate students who blew off their seminar paper all semester and now had to finish it over the weekend.

For 36 hours the Trump campaign drank coffee, stayed up late, and tried to give the appearance of a functioning presidential campaign. They rapid responsed Hillary’s speech on the economy.  Not effectively, but there was some effort put forth. They dug up some c-list surrogates to appear on television. And, most notably, someone wrote a speech for Trump, and he delivered it off the teleprompter with a base level of competence.  These panicked efforts seem to have been enough to take the steam out of the latest and last stop Trump effort.

The second bullet was that Trump might actually start to turn into a better candidate. And, we’d have to endure weeks of stories about a more disciplined Trump and tightening poll numbers. There was a brief moment at the beginning of the speech.  Just brief.  Where Trump was almost dignified. Where he talked about building a great company. Building something he could share with his children. Talked about jobs. You could almost imagine that if someone like Peggy Noonan in her prime wrote him some speeches that were magnanimous and optimistic, he could be a serious contender.  But, it was just a moment. A few lines in a 45-minute speech that was nasty and exhausting.

One high-school debating tactic is to “run the spread”, to barrage the other side with so many arguments that they can’t rebut them all. The downside to running the spread is that you risk making your own argument so diffuse that it’s not effective. Trump’s speech surveyed the vast landscape, real and imaginary, of Hillary’s supposed ethical lapses in so much detail that reporters and pundits had no idea what to focus on.  Rather than build on any momentum that the speech may have generated, the Trump team did what every feckless student does after a brief dalliance with competence . . . Road Trip!

Scotland. Golf course! Just there to help the family. Stand by my kids. Family first. These suites! Wait until you see these suites! Scotland’s excited about Brexit (they aren’t). It will be great for my golf course (it won’t).

And now the run up to the convention. Laska, Mr. Jones, any predictions?  Who in their right mind delivers the key note address?  Will there be a key note address? Will there be any speakers other than Trump? Surely Ben Carson if Trump will have him. Jeff Sessions if anyone notices him. I’m becoming convinced that it will be Chis Christie for the V.P. spot, as the governor continues to play out his self-esteem issues in public. The Trump campaign claims that it will be a big show, but what entertainers would dare show up at this thing?  Pat Boone, sure, but then who?

The Democrats’ “historic” sit- in at the House of Representatives ended yesterday.  On the same day, Mitch McConnell used some arcane parliamentary procedure to prevent the Collins bill from moving forward in the senate. So, it looks like gun control is on hold until after November.  Or much longer. A few thoughts:

A lot of things have happened in the last eight years that I never thought I’d see in my lifetime. A black president, gay marriage, marijuana legal. So, I can’t give up hope that someday there will be a consensus on gun control, or at least control of assault weapons. And, that when it happens, it will happen all of a sudden and the NRA will never be the same.

But, I don’t think that sit-ins in the House are the answer, though I understand the frustration of the minority Democrats. It reminded me of the time Texas state legislators fled the state to deny the Republicans a quorum to prevent their passing a redistricting bill. It worked for a few weeks, but eventually, they all had to return to the legislature. And the Republicans passed their redistricting bill.

Ways to tell you are losing?  You have to flee the state to prevent a vote.  Or you stay up all night in the well of the House in an act of futile symbolism. Pelosi, Lewis, Rangel . . . All well into their seventies, at the end of long and honorable careers. In which they’ve been unable to change the debate on guns.

And, it does set a precedent. Imagine Trey Gowdy and Steve King doing the same thing on some issue important to conservatives.

I’m not optimistic that any meaningful assault weapons bans will be passed. But, if it happens, it will result from a mix of the following factors:

• During the recent senate haggling over various gun control issues, Pat Toomey was shuttling between the NRA and Everytown, Bloomberg’s anti-gun organization, to work on language for legislation that he and Joe Manchin were authoring. Everytown’s potential to become a lobbying organization to counter the NRA is essential.
• Sandyhook was clearly a transformative moment for the president, and the issue of gun control is likely to become a leading issue for him during his post-presidency. Obama + Everytown could change the equation, if they target specific congressional districts. Imagine Bloomberg’s money and Obama showing up in specific congressional districts to make the moral argument.
• NRA members die. Demographics drive change. NRA members tend to be older and more rural. The number of hunters has declined precipitously in the last twenty years. At some point, guns just won’t be as potent an issue for a large enough segment of voters.
• National Security. Orlando made gun control a national security issue. That should be a game changer. If the NRA can beat a National Security argument, then I tip my hat to them and will start pricing AR-50s.

 

Nothing more becomes a summer’s day than a speech on CSPAN-2 from the House of Representatives in 1995. But, if you care about politics even a little, then you need to set aside 12 minutes to view Henry Hyde’s impassioned and reasoned argument on the House floor in defense of politics as a profession, and politicians as practioners. And the importance of both in keeping a democracy vital.  Hyde’s message is important during a time when it’s easy to be contemptuous of government and the people who serve in it.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4524922/henry-hyde-term-limits

Hyde was a conservative Republican Representative from suburban Illinois. There’s very little in his political views that I agree with, but he was generally regarded by his colleagues on both sides of the aisle as one of the best representatives in the eighties and nineties.

Hyde’s speech is his argument against term limits for senators and representatives. Many readers may recall that term limits were a big issues in the 1990s. For a variety of reasons, very few incumbent senators or representatives lost their reelection bids during the second half of the eighties and first half of the nineties. Thus, the move to limit the number of terms that a senator or congressman could serve.

Hyde makes the case against term limits, but, even as that issue has faded into history, Hyde’s speech remains a stirring defense of politics and the people who practice it.   Some of his main themes:

There are about two dozen of Hyde’s colleagues in attendance, evidence of the importance of the speech and their respect for Hyde.  Keep an eye out for some interesting cameos. There’s Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders.  Behind him Bill Richardson.  Close ups on David Obey and the legendary Henry P. Gonzalez.

To belabor the point, at a time when respect for the profession of politics and the skill and dedication of the people who practice it are at an all-time low. At a time when we have Trump. Hyde’s message resonates—or should–more than ever.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that one key indicator in this election would be former Republican office holders who have no further apparent interest in seeking political office and how many of them speak up against Trump or even for Hillary.  Since these people don’t have to worry so much about holding the base or helping to keep the congress Republican, they can speak their conscience.

We had two outright Republican endorsements for Hillary this morning.  Larry Pressler former GOP senator from South Dakota and Arne Carlson, former governor of Minnesota. Neither of these guys are heavy weights nationally, but these kind of endorsements get noticed in individual states.  And the Republicans for Hillary web site is surely sitting on a staging server for launch some time around the convention.

Here is the Carlson endorsement posted on Politicalwire.com

“I’m not often critical of the media, but I am this year. And it’s driven mostly by television, and ratings. They never really vetted Bernie Sanders, and to this day have not vetted Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton? Oh my God. No human being in history has been more vetted.”

— Former Minnesota Gov. Arne Carlson (R), quoted by City Pages, announcing his support for Hillary Clinton who he said is a “very kind, a very good person.”

As for current office holders, Morning Joe showed clips of McConnell, Ryan, Roger Wicker (head of the GOP senatorial campaign committee and senator from Mississippi), and others flatly and tersely refusing to answer reporters’s questions about Donald Trump. Some of them avoided the reporters entirely.  When Lamar Alexander of Tennessee refused to talk about Trump, a reporter said, “but he’s your nominee.” the normally mild mannered Alexander snapped,”He’s not the nominee yet,”before storming away from the cameras.

 

 

Can’t say this is one of my more thoughtful posts.  But, since I’m still not over the two Reagan landslides, I want to enjoy this while I can. So, just from today:

• Noticing in an unscientific way that cable news (o.k., MSNBC) doesn’t cover Trump rallies wall-to-wall like they did during the primaries when he was Coney-Island-Side-Show essential viewing and the ratings were great. But, now it’s a general election, and all the free media exposure is drying up. Or is at least equal to Hillary’s time.
• He’s losing in Kansas. He’s losing in Utah. And the year is not 1932.
• He’s losing by 13 points nationally.
• Yesterday he said, “I’m much better for the gays.”
• Newt Gingrich proposed recreating the House Unamerican Activities Committee
• Bob Corker, respected chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who has said positive things about Trump’s foreign policy views before yesterday, today said, with customary senatorial understatement, “I think I made a big mistake.”