Top 10 Startling Predictions for the Post-American Republic

My first listicle! I’m pumped! I’m jacked! Here are things that few people are discussing in the wake of what happened on Tuesday, but that are likely to happen in the next four years.

I’ve taken to referring to the period between 1776 and November 8, 2016 as The American Republic and the period starting November 9 as Post-Republic. I contend that something significant ended on Election Day. This isn’t a good ole Republican v. Democrat spat over marginal tax rates. Election Day was the curtain falling on the system of constitutional government, rule of law, international alliances, and norms of political behavior that held sway during America’s post-war zenith.

I don’t think voters are focused at all on what’s to come. It’s vital to the nation that we have small government conservatives to advance a narrative and policies that check what might otherwise be endlessly expansive government.  But, since Reagan, the right wing of the Republican Party has been on a mission to delegitimize government. To make voters hate it. To make workers of all income levels less secure so that they vote from fear of the future. And, as Grover Norquist once said, “Get it [government] down to the size where we could drown it in a bathtub.” A generous and beautiful metaphor that aptly fits Week One of the Post-Republic.

Here’s my predictions for things that are quite likely to happen in years one through four of the Post- Republic. All of these initiatives are designed to degrade and destroy the government and further inflame economic anxiety among all classes of voters. And change the country in ways that no one considered when making their vote.

Hang it up somewhere so that you can play along and check them off as they occur.

 

  • Eliminate the senate filibuster. This is crucial since it will allow the GOP program to mostly advance along majority votes. No more of this 60 votes required crap that the GOP used effectively to stymie Obama’s legislative efforts. There are still a lot of ways for a minority leader to gum up the senate works, and Chuck Schumer is hell on wheels, and a few Republicans like Jeff Flake will break ranks now and again, but a filibuster-less Schumer will be like a teen-aged tennis player from Romania unlucky enough to draw Serena Williams in the first round at Wimbledon—just swinging in the air while the ace’s zip by.
  • Destroy private sector unions. Scott Walker will be coming to town and this will surely be part of his remit, like it was in Wisconsin when he went after the public sector unions and also the tenure system at the University of Wisconsin. The decline of unions is the single greatest reason so many blue collar people lack economic security. My father worked for Unity Township in PA for 28 years and was a member of the UAW. You don’t get rich with that job.  No big promotions. No end-of-year bonuses. But, you did have job security.  You could plan ahead and structure your expenses to fit the income.  We lived in Crabtree, PA, not exactly the garden spot of Western PA and drove a car to all our vacations. But, we had economic security.  The fewer workers, at any level, with job security, the more angry voters who will turn against the government, poor people, and foreigners.
  • Begin destroying the civil service: Another sinecure of moderately compensated, but stable middle class jobs. Look for Trump and the GOP to drastically accelerate the outsourcing of government services to private, for-profit companies and to provide minimal resources for government oversight. Services to the public deteriorate. Voters can’t get anyone on the phone to help them. Respect for government falls even lower.
  • Destroy Medicare. Medicare is the second most successful social program in history, but the GOP has wanted to destroy it since it began in 1968. With congressional majorities they can start the assault. They’ll be careful that the changes don’t affect current beneficiaries or people nearing 62—they don’t want old people taking to the streets of D.C., randomly firing sawed-off shotguns at double parked Lincoln Towncars. But, people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s will find their Medicare benefits transmuting into vouchers and health care savings accounts (ask yourself, even if you are affluent, after paying your bills, educating your kids, and trying to self-fund your retirement, how much money do you have left to self-fund your health insurance?)  Most younger voters aren’t paying attention to Medicare now so the objections will be minimal, and, in any event, ignored.
  • Destroy Medicaid.All the Obamacare attention is focused on the exchanges, but the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act was responsible for the most significant increases in coverage. The expansion is made possible by federal dollars flowing to the states to fund the expansion. In rolling back Obamacare, the GOP can easily eliminate this funding. Millions fall of the insurance rolls, but they are mostly poor people of all races and colors and so most voters won’t notice or care.
  • Start to Destroy Social Security. The single most successful social welfare program. We are probably still too close the financial meltdown in 2008 for the GOP to try converting Social Security into a 401(k) plan, but there are lots of ways—raising the retirement age, further reducing benefits, understaffing Social Security offices, maybe means testing so that it’s no longer a universal program—that they can sabotage Social Security.
  • Defy the federal courts. It’s highly likely that at some time during the Trump Administration, a federal court will issue a ruling that does not favor the Trump Administration. I’m sure Steve Bannon is already looking for a test case. Trump decides to ignore the court’s ruling. The court reminds him of their decision and he says, “Yeah, I heard you the first time.”  The Trump Justice Department stays silent.  The judge isn’t about to send federal marshals to the West Wing to start serving arrest warrants.  The moment passes. And, few voters even notice.  But the precedent is set for the executive branch to defy the judiciary with impunity. And the rule of law sags and buckles.
  • Politicize federal prosecutors. We take for granted that the government’s power to prosecute and imprison people is benign and apolitical.  Much of that due to the exemplary work of bi-partisan prosecutors who take their responsibilities very seriously.  There was a period during the second Bush administration, when Karl Rove was pressuring prosecutors to bring charges for what appeared to be political reasons. The outcry from Republican and Democratic prosecutors, current and former, was quick and unanimous.  Don’t think for a moment that Trump won’t appoint prosecutors who are not as squeamish about going after the Boss’s enemies. It will happened. And most voters won’t even notice it.
  • Politicize the IRS. Trump will surely use the IRS to similarly punish his opponents and enemies.
  • Exert the power of the presidency in civil courts. Trump routinely uses his wealth to force less wealthy companies and people to spend money fighting him in court.  Although his companies will be in a Mr. Magoo-level blind trust, run by his children, many companies and individuals will find themselves on the receiving end of a law suits brought by a company that bears the name of the President of the United States.

******Bonus Round******

  • About that hotel he built in the D.C. Post Office building. In the closing days of the campaign, Trump made a stop in D.C. to unveil his new hotel in the magnificent former D.C. post office building. I’m not aware of a single reporter who asked if he would sell the hotel if elected, since being president and holding a lease with the Government Services Agency is a clear conflict of interest.  Both Hyatt and Marriot, who lost out to Trump in the bidding for the property, filed complaints with the GSA on the grounds that Trump so massively overbid the project, thereby incurring tens of millions of dollars in debt, that they saw no business model by which the hotel could be profitable. Trump will either just make the GSA renegotiate the lease and have taxpayers forgive the debt, just ignore the lease and not make the payments, and/or force organizations and individuals doing business with the federal government to patronize the hotel.  “And, of course, be sure to mention to the Boss how impressed you are with the hotel.”

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