May and June have been fun times for devotees of Trump Studies. He made a fool of himself almost every day. He has no campaign staff.  No money. Every day former Republican office holders endorse Hillary Clinton, Republican senators and governors refuse to discuss him with the press.  He’s underwater in the polls.  He’s losing in places like Utah and Kansas.

It’s been fun to think about a Hilary landslide, a democratic senate, a 7-2 liberal majority on the Supreme Court for the next twenty years. And, I think all of that is going to happen.

But, Trump’s performances the last two days are a portent for what’s coming the rest of this election. He gave two speeches, one on Monday in Southwestern Pennsylvania about trade and the economy and one in Maine where he talked about Isis.

Both speeches were at indoor venues. He spoke, mostly, from a teleprompter.  No outdoor rallies and stupid baseball caps with Trump free associating about his polls and his amazing company and hurling school-yard insults at his rivals.

His message was clear.  The country is dying. We are weak and stupid. I’m strong. Hillary is weak. Vote for me. Democrats and Hillary had better not underestimate how effective this can be.  It won’t be enough for her to just make fun of him. It sure won’t be enough for her to just look reasoned and safe and defending the status quo. He’s a buffoon and a jagoff, but still the single greatest threat to the Republic.

Isis and National Defense

During his speech in Maine and an appearance yesterday on Bill O’Reilly’s show he told so many lies that it’s impossible to keep up with them.

• He said over and over that Isis is strong , and we are weak (we aren’t). That they are winning (no) and we are losing (no). Just this week, Iraqi forces completed their retaking of Fallujah. Yesterday, U.S. and allied air forces caught an Isis column out in the open on the retreat from Fallujah.  To use Trump’s language, the allied air forces “bombed the shit out of them” resulting in an estimated 250 dead and 40 vehicles destroyed.
• He talked about how we are letting in tens of thousands of Syrian refugees and many of those are Isis. Republican Peter King, Chair of the House Homeland Security committee observed this morning that the total number of Syrian refugees admitted to the country is 4,800 and that they are heavily vetted.
• He gave a full-throated endorsement of torture. Water boarding, yes, but that’s not strong enough. He imagined Isis leaders having dinner and laughing at the U.S. for running a “politically correct” war while they are chopping people’s heads off.
• They are recruiting our young people
• They use the internet better than we do.

Fear resonates with Trump’s base and certainly with what we used to call blue collar voters. I remember during the 1980s, a lot of conversations around dinner tables and in bars.  Voters who were sure that the Soviets were strong and smart, and we were weak and stupid. That they were winning, right up to the moment the Soviet economy and political system collapsed.

Kennedy in 1960 made up a missile gap with the Soviets and used that fear to help defeat Nixon.  Twenty years later, Reagan resurrected the pretend missile gap. I still remember Reagan, his voice somewhat choked with emotion, saying of the Soviet’s pretend first-strike capability, “They could take us without firing a shot.”  It was all bullshit, but it was worked. Reagan Strong. Carter Weak.

Fear works on national security issues with a certain segment of voters. The question is, how big that constituency is. Hillary can beat him. But, not by saying things like, “we’ll continue to work with our European and Muslim allies”.

Trade

On Monday, he promised to scrap the Trans Pacific trade deal and to renegotiate NAFTA.  Punish China for trade violations, like dumping steel on the U.S. market. Restrict trade in certain industries to protect American workers.

The message is clear. I’m strong. Everyone else is weak and dumb.  It won’t be enough for Hillary to repeat the usual boilerplate about free trade. Bernie, and Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown will help a lot here, but the candidate herself is not a credible voice on issues of trade and blue collar jobs.

I don’t believe that there are enough voters who buy into Trump’s message of Fear and Strength. Fear through Strength. Strength is Fear. But, this stuff works. And Trump reading from a teleprompter. A Trump with two dozen memorized lines for a debate with Hillary. A Trump whose only message is “I’m Strong and you are Weak” is a viable and dangerous candidate.

I still think he’s going to get his ass kicked in November because everyone (except for many of the people I grew up with in Southwestern Pennsylvania) knows he’s not qualified for the job.  But, Democrats can’t just run out the clock or assume that this is going to be easy.